How to predict a winning match by odds and beat the bookies?


In the world of sports betting, many prospective gamblers are either immediately enticed by the profits of betting, or they are too scared to hop into the lifestyle. Either of these is not the safest or healthiest way to get into betting. To be honest, a lot of betting is mainly concentrated on the mathematics of probabilities. Think about it! Have you ever wondered why so many advertisements are telling you that you will win? If so, you’ve probably thought to yourself “How come these random strangers want me to win? Won’t they be losing in the long run?” No, they won’t. Today, we will explain how you can identify the best odds and beat the bookmaker odds and begin winning games.

Firstly, there isn’t a holy grail formula for sports betting. You have to breathe in this fact before you can truly begin to look at the betting world from clear lenses. Remember that you are not betting because you feel like you have a high probability of winning. Instead, adopt the mentality of betting to increase your probability of winning over the bookmaker’s odds. To make profits in betting, your judgment should be better than the bookmakers.

To find the best value odds, you have to understand the concept of value which is important to understand any betting tips. The reward may be either positive or negative. A positive value is if you are more likely to win a wager than the chance in the odds. In other words, a positive value exists when your wager is more likely to win than suggested in the odds. If a wager is less likely to win than the odds suggest, a negative value is. You will need a positive value to make money. To make money, you’ll need a positive value.



When identifying value in sports betting, there are two fundamental steps to take. You have to measure the likelihood of the outcome and then equate those probabilities with the expected chances of the wager-related odds. Matches are very unpredictable and in football betting, there are too many possible variables to use. Therefore, you must try to make assessments using research and analysis while trusting your judgment.

To illustrate how you can identify value in real scenarios, here is an example of football betting. There is an upcoming match between Chelsea FC and Manchester City FC. We want to put our bet on the winner of the match. So, we need to assess the chances our winner will have. In this scenario, for the Premier League standings, Chelsea FC is 4th on the league table with 8-2-3 and Manchester City is 3rd on the league table with 9-1-3. The scales are tipped towards Manchester City for this matchup.

Additionally, when you want to find out the chances of winning for a team, there are many important pieces of information such as world ranking, past meetings, team value, and others. Let’s say from this, Manchester City FC holds a 72% chance of winning against Chelsea FC with 28%. Now, after taking a look at the betting sites online, we have seen that the odds offered for Manchester City are 1.42 which converts to 70.4% for the implied probability. Meanwhile, there are odds of 6.33 for Chelsea which is 15.8% as the implied probability.

From the standings and statistics for Manchester City FC, there is a 72% chance of winning. However, this is higher than the implied probability of 70.4% which means that there is no positive value. There is no positive value once the actual probability is higher than the implied probability. However, Chelsea was estimated to have a probability of 28% which is higher than the implied probability of 15.8%. With these results, it will be best to bet on Chelsea because the odds are in their favor due to a positive value.

It seems like a lot to take in, but this knowledge will help you improve significantly in the world of sports betting. Many betting tips will help you learn how to evolve your chances and this is an important step to fully utilize new knowledge on betting. Beating the bookmaker odds is the goal of profitable betting experience and winning games in the long run.

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